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Project 6: Interfacing SWAT and PHABSIM: A Potential GIS-based Water Resource Management Tool
Principal Investigator (PI): Dr. Barnali Dixon
Co-PI: Dr. James Gore,
Dr. Andy Casper
140 7th Avenue S.
St. Petersburg, Florida 33701
Tel: (727) 873-4025
Fax: (727) 873-4526
Based on investigations and research in the past five years, climatologists believe that multidecadal periods of warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean’s surface waters ultimately affect precipitation patterns across much of the United States (Enfield et al. 2001, McCabe et al. 2004). Since river flows are largely rainfall dependent, variation in rainfall should result in variations in river flow to coastal areas, as well. Kelly (2004) has demonstrated that flow increases in the northern part of Florida and flow decreases in peninsular Florida are consistent with the AMO and the reported relationship with rainfall. These relationships extend not only to rivers in Florida but to the entire southeastern Unites States, both Atlantic and Gulf coastal rivers. While northern Florida rivers (spring flooding) and southern Florida rivers (autumn flooding) show a distinct relationships, bimodal rivers (Santa Fe River, at the boundary of the regions) show a particularly strong relationship with the AMO. These results are particularly controversial in the Tampa Bay region since much of the decline in flows and resulting changes in water quality over the past tri-decade have been attributed to changes in land use, especially increased phosphate mining.
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